Dr. Ashleigh McGirr is a Health Outcomes Scientist within the Vaccines department at GSK Canada. Ashleigh’s research interests are primarily focused on public health and economic evaluation of new vaccination programs.
Ashleigh completed her PhD in Epidemiology and Public Health Sciences at the University of Toronto with a focus on understanding vaccination strategies to contain the spread of pertussis in Canada. During her dissertation work, Ashleigh used a series of different mathematical and statistical techniques to explore theories of pertussis persistence and presented her work to researchers, policy makers, and physicians to highlight the need for re-evaluation of pertussis immunization programs.
Ashleigh has also worked with the Centre for Global Health Research in Toronto, Canada where she evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing an influenza vaccine program in India in partnership with the World Health Organization, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Indian Council of Medical Research.
Ashleigh is a member of the Society for Medical Decision Making and the International Society for Pharmacoeconomic and Outcomes Research.
Using Models to Predict the Public Health and Economic Impact of New Vaccines
In order to predict the population impact of the introduction of a new vaccine in a community, researchers have been increasingly turning to mathematical models. While models are not a substitute for epidemiologic data, mathematical models are an important tool to help policy makers and public health officials make informed decisions. These models allow us to simulate the effects of an immunization program and compare that to other potential immunization programs or to no immunization program. The flexibility of these models allows for customization to different disease areas and target populations. They can be used to estimate the number of cases that a particular vaccine could avoid, the number needed to vaccinate in order to avoid a case of disease, and the relative cost-benefit impact as calculated through the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. This presentation will include an overview of the use of mathematical models, the types of models available, the data they can generate, how to interpret the results, and how to evaluate cost-effectiveness of an intervention in different circumstances, using vaccines for herpes zoster as a case example.
GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA funded this study and all costs associated with the development of related publications.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
AM is an employee of the GSK group of companies.